Scenario Thinking - neues Buch

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ISBN/EAN: 9783319490670

ISBN - alternative Schreibweisen:
978-3-319-49067-0
Alternative Schreibweisen und verwandte Suchbegriffe:
Autor des Buches: wright
Titel des Buches: scenario, thinking

Daten vom Verlag:

Autor/in: George Cairns; George Wright
Titel: Scenario Thinking - Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan; Springer International Publishing
276 Seiten
Erscheinungsjahr: 2017-10-13
Cham; CH
Sprache: Englisch
58,84 € (DE)
60,50 € (AT)
65,00 CHF (CH)
Available
XIX, 276 p. 15 illus.

EA; E107; eBook; Nonbooks, PBS / Wirtschaft/Management; Organisationstheorie und -verhalten; Verstehen; Organisational Theory; Decision making; Problem solving; Scenario thinking; Management; B; Organization; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Organization; Operations Research and Decision Theory; Business and Management; Unternehmensforschung; Management: Entscheidungstheorie; BB

Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development.

What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often.

Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings.

Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions.

This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.

Chapter1.Why should the individual and organization practice scenario thinking?.- Chapter 2.Working with scenarios: introducing the basic method.- Chapter3.Working with stakeholders: understanding stakeholder viewpoints and critiquing scenario storylines.- Chapter4.Augmenting scenario approaches: delving deeper and stretching wider.- Chapter5.Scenarios and decision analysis.- Chapter6.Creating robust strategies and robust organizations.- Chapter7.The backwards logic method of constructing extreme scenarios.- Chapter8.Diagnosing organizational receptiveness.- Chapter9.Lessons learnt from using scenario planning on the real world.- Chapter10.Evaluation of the effectiveness of scenario interventions within organizations.

. His research has accumulated over 9000 citations in Google Scholar and his scenario-based consultancy includes the UK National Health Service.

Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development.

What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often.

Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings.

Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions.

This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.

Provides practical guidance for applying a range of scenario approaches to planning for uncertain future events

Presents international single-organization and multi-organizational case studies from the UK, South-East Asia and Australia.

Shows how to engage time-poor senior decision makers in the process